If short: most likely yes
Why do I think so read below:
The first cards appeared almost one hundred years ago, they had embossed owner data, which could easily be stolen. The only protection for a long time was the owner's signature on the card. To pay, the buyer had to sign a receipt, and if the seller confirmed that the signatures matched, the payment was accepted
In the late 1960s, cards with magnetic stripes appeared. This made payments easier, but the signature was still the main protection. Copying a magnetic stripe was not hard, just forging a signature on a new card (duplicate)
Only in the 1970s and 1980s, with the rise of ATMs, a new security factor appeared - the PIN code. It is still used today, depending on the terminal or ATM (many terminals are outdated)
This made copying magnetic stripe data + PIN harder, but not impossible
In the 1990s, online shopping grew, and CVV/CVC codes were added for security. These codes did not work in ATMs, and PIN codes were not used for online-transaction. This was the start of a split: some things worked online, others in offline
Fraud also evolved, phishing sites appeared, tricking people into giving away their card details
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, 3D Secure was introduced for extra security in online payments. Now, if money was stolen, it happened only once, and careful users could notice strange transactions details from SMS messages
2010 and later. Banks started using EMV chip cards, which were nearly impossible to copy. Every payment required a signature with a secure private key and a PIN code. This created two-factor authentication: a PIN and a unique private key on the chip. Each transaction generated a unique token, valid only once. But replacing all payment terminals was expensive, so the technology spread slowly
At the same time, smartphones with NFC chips became popular. Tech giants like Apple and Google introduced their own secure payment methods. As a result, using only Apple / Google Pay made card data theft nearly impossible
But how is a card added to Apple / Google Pay? By entering the card number, CVV/CVC, and using 3D Secure. Fraudsters also learned to do this, adding stolen cards to their accounts and spending the money with no extra confirmation
Now, modern banks allow users to add cards to Apple / Google Pay directly from their mobile app, without entering a card number. Many popular websites already support payments via mobile wallets
Why do I think bank cards might disappear
Each new security measure made things harder for both: criminals and users, but never fully protected users
With EMV chips and phone-linked cards, card numbers are becoming less important. Soon, almost everyone with a bank card will have a phone with payment support. If ATMs start using NFC for access, physical cards may no longer be needed. Banks might even turn physical cards into a paid option
Moving away from card numbers will nearly eliminate the black market for stolen card data. This is great for both: people and banks, because card data theft will stop when there is nothing left to steal. Right now, some websites store card numbers without proper security. If their databases get leaked, it leads to large-scale card data theft
Will removing card numbers stop fraud?
No, scammers will find new ways. They will create fake online stores or sell fake products without delivery
One more thing: a simple button "Pay by phone now" is much easier than entering all card's details. This will lead to more impulse purchases
In short, getting rid of card numbers is safer and better for everyone: users, banks, and sellers
PS: While writing this short note, I found great news – Mastercard Reinvents Checkout With Password and Number Free Payments
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