Not long ago, AI experts predicted that Software Engineers would eventually be automated by AI, just like many other professions. With the release of Devin, the first publicly introduced AI Software Engineer, the race has started, and there's been a lot of buzz (an interesting demos!) about it. Many developers, like other non-tech professionals, have started to worry.
Now, the question is not when, but how much and to what degree our jobs will be replaced by AI.
I've covered some of these topics in a past blog post, but as AI development has progressed many more thoughts have come to mind, I've discussed this topic with many people, and tried to be as updated as possible with the latest news so this is an updated and more comprehensive version of my thoughts on this topic.
The State of Software Engineering Automation
It all started with the release of ChatGPT at the end of 2023. It seems like this event was decades ago, but as a famous politician once said, "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. (V. Lenin)". This is definitely the case. We were all amazed at how this chatbot could answer almost any question appropriately. For us engineers, it meant we didn't have to rely solely on Stack Overflow or other sources when googling, but rather use this tool as a comprehensive assistant to help us understand any concept or bug related to our software.
Not long after ChatGPT, GitHub Copilot was released. This was the second big step for engineers to have an AI tool directly embedded in our source code that could help us predict the next lines of code when given enough context. Eventually, Copilot Chat was also released, which, along with regular Copilot, was a perfect combo that gave us an extra productivity boost when writing or understanding our code.
Many other ChatGPT-like competitors have launched, like Claude, OLLama, nGrok, to name a few. We have almost daily breaking releases of new AI products that could affect how we work. The investment pace in AI is intense as venture capitalists work to beat one another, seeking big returns. This means a massive number of new AI tools are still in development and will potentially impact our work when released.
Can Developers Be Fully Automated?
That depends on the type of developer. This is a question that has been asked for a long time regarding many other professions. For example, some years ago when AutoCAD was released, many architects worried about their jobs. However, the reality is that AutoCAD didn't replace architects, but rather made them more productive and allowed them to use their energies on more creative tasks, rather than spending time drawing their concepts. While I think AI tools will have a bigger impact than any software tool released before, I believe to some degree, the same will happen with developers.
Some types of developers may be automated, for example, those who turn Figma designs into HTML or create simpler landing pages, and other similar tasks where the work involves using a few technologies for initial projects or proofs of concept will be the first to go. However, most of us developers with some years in the market know that a software developer is not a one-tool professional. We have to deal with people from different teams, several technologies across different versions, and generally, deal with problems that humans will (hopefully) only be able to solve. Even when existing full automation solutions are available now, they are not enough for handling some issues that machines can't solve. For example, Musk automated almost completely one of Tesla's gigafactories and had to roll back that decision as many issues arose where the machines couldn't solve problems that humans could.
Does the fact that AI tools partially replace us mean we'll have less work? Yes, definitely. We will be super-powered professionals who need less time to complete our work and therefore should be able to have more workload. No more time spent on stupid bugs caused by typos or unspotted silly errors, and more time on things that matter: architecture design, UX, business overview, best practices and patterns, etc. This twit from the Andrej Karpathy exdirector of AI in Tesla makes a great analogy with automated driving. Will there be fewer open positions for developers? Possibly; if more work could be done by fewer developers, why would any sane company overhire? The bright side is there's been a lot of discussion about potentially reducing the workweek for all tech developers, as discussed in this video. Even Musk has talked about a universal income for all humans since the decreased workload will give us less chance to work and earn money.
Finally, I think humans will still need to understand the basics, like a professor at my university once told me: "There are tools that already do this automatically, but to use them properly, you have to understand where the output comes from."
What About the Government?
Will they allow this flood of AI tools to replace workers worldwide? While highly criticized, the EU has been the first to start regulating AI as they consider some sensitive tasks should not be done by AI, regulate fake media content, and prevent uncompetitive actions by tech companies. They may also enforce companies to eventually reduce working hours and provide welfare for reduced salaries caused by lesser billed hours. Governments finally stepping in to enforce the correct use of AI will be crucial in determining the potential impact (positive or negative) on humanity. At this moment there's no regulation in place for them, therefore companies release them without any responsibility of potential harm they could cause, which in my opinion is a very dangerous situation and should be eventually regulated by governments. Here's an interesting podcast of an AI regulation advocate exposing why the Wild West state of product releases should be stopped.
It is widely known that some organizations like educational institutions (see here) and private companies are blocking the use of AI tools on their networks, and there is wide discussion about the ethical implications of using AI tools and how they could be correctly used. While AI offers potential benefits, there are valid concerns around academic integrity, data privacy, and responsible deployment that need to be addressed. My father is involved in Higher Education and this is a topic that we've discussed at length and there's no strategy to deal with it yet. The velocity of AI improvements is so high that it's hard to keep up with the latest tools, their implications and potential regulations.
What Should I Do to Protect Myself Against AI Automation?
- Don't over-specialize: Unless you want to become an expert in one single technology, over-specializing is probably not the best option since AI would likely beat you in all ways. "In a wicked world, relying upon experience from a single domain is not only limiting, it can be disastrous." - David Epstein
- Become a generalist: For me, this is the most viable option. Increasing your range of tools will make it very difficult for AI tools to replace you, since most will be made for solving specific problems. We've seen that existing models perform above average—sometimes better than most ordinary people on any topic you have in mind. However, only specialized AI tools are becoming the real threat to certain professions. This makes sense since most startups (not even OpenAI or other tech giants) don't have the scale to do everything perfectly. There will be different winners in each field or customer problem, therefore being a generalist is the way to go.
- Become the master of the threats: By threats, I'm obviously referring to the AI tools. Learning and understanding these tools in detail will allow you to control those tools. You could become an in-demand developer if you become proficient with them. You don't have to become an AI scientist or similar. For example, I'm learning how to implement Langchain into existing code bases to solve complex problems that would otherwise have required very difficult algorithms, thus adding AI value to existing products.
Wrapping Up
The days when software engineers were the untouchable professionals with the highest salaries and best perks are long gone. We will be impacted (we've already been) by AI. The bright side? Opportunists and people who were around only for the good salaries will be out, relieving the pressure for all those developers passionate about software, with incredible tools to make their job much easier and enjoyable. The downside is we'll probably earn less money for doing what we love. Who knows, maybe less competition from those quitters will prevent salaries from dropping too much? In my case, I wasn't part of that cohort with awesome salaries from 10 years ago, so I'm kind of used to having a decent wage while working on exciting things I love doing.
I think of this as an era similar to the industrial revolution, which brought incredible tools that made life easier for many people and freeing them from repetitive tasks and increased the productivity of the world. While that revolution also brought a lot of pain and suffering to many people, it also brought a lot of opportunities for those who were able to adapt to the new times.
Cheer up! Rather than adopting a Neo-Luddite mentality and cursing the inventors of these tools, we should be happy to live in a time when they've just been released when we're still young and able to adapt to them and we still have a lot of freedom to use them in our favor. Some similar might probably never be repeated, and those who are one step ahead of the pack could forge a very bright future for themselves and their loved ones.
Top comments (34)
The machines are coming for us all. Today we stand in relation to AI as paper newspapers did to the Internet in the mid nineties. Your job may not be under threat today, but enough people will lose their jobs soon enough that this is going to be a serious social problem. We could regulate and ban of course, but near as I can tell this will only export those jobs to other countries which do embrace AI. So become a dentist or hair dresser. Some jobs involving sharp object in close proximity to the head I figure involve a level of trust that will make them last to go. But anything that involves looking at a screen, moving a mouse and typing; dead men walking.
I don't really think we'll be dead men walking. But supercharged and productive professionals. Even Andrej Karpathy (former director of AI in Tesla) does a great analogy in this twit
Even if there is a small group of highly paid super AI geniuses, the broader IT community will be affected. We place a great deal of our self esteem in being intelligent, just as artists thought their creativity protected them. It didn't protect artists, and our intelligence as developers won't save us either. Read Karpathy's post again.
Indeed ! What are we (the non-genius majority) left with, without truly meaningful work ? It is not only about money, or status, but about having something to which we can devote our energy, and derive the deep satisfaction of accomplishment.
I truly enjoy using my intellect to solve meaningful, real-world problems, and I feel pride in the effort I expend doing so. I do not want to be reduced to merely asking a software application for a solution, or "supervising" it while it generates a solution in response to my "prompts". If we extrapolate, it becomes obvious I, the human, become the expendable one.
It is dismaying to see so many, so eagerly working toward their own demise.
Are you familiar with the mega-advisory company Gartner? As a side note, they are valued at $5.9 billion and are part of the S&P 500. Their forecasts span all sectors, including developing ones. We are currently amidst an AI industrial revolution, which is fundamentally reshaping civilization, society, and all its constituent segments. Take a look at MindStudio, which visually represents its AI. AI is a reality, albeit one that currently depends on human input, with regulations still unclear and largely nonexistent. This means that every sector of development will be significantly influenced by AI.
Very good post
AI tools will just improve the total human output and allow non technical people in future to create software. This will lead to less concentrated wealth.
No, only legislation that promotes competition (and is enforced), changes in corporate and taxation laws that act to do so, can accomplish that aim.
Less concentrated wealth? Maybe. We said the same of crypto. Yet, wealth disparities continue to grow.
When "AI" is able to do more than just generate media, then maybe you'll be right.
I think in the short run AI will give more opportunities for the regular people, but in the long run it could create great wealth disparities when the race for the AI dominance is won by one company (probably openai or ms) and that's why governments should step in now with regulation to prevent this.
That the possibility even exists that one corporation can become so-dominant reflects the poor state of competition, corporate, and even taxation law, in economically powerful jurisdictions, the product of 45 years of legislative negligence.
Regulators should act to ensure that no one (or even few) corporation(s) can be so dominant. Monopolies are not healthy for individual, let alone, the world, economy.
I completely agree, and given the significance that AI could have across all industries, I believe the U.S. government is falling behind in addressing this issue. Hopefully, I’m mistaken, but the lack of oversight and regulation could lead to a catastrophic outcome for the world, not just the USA.
Great read! Something we all should keep in mind. "AI is a tool, its not good and its not evil."
Garen Murcia
Like money, weapons, and so on. It depends of how it is used.
100%
I thought it was well written. Still, I find most of this AI talk speculation. Most people don't seem to have any solid facts. This seems to be a problem with all the AI posts I read. So, I'm not to fond of them at large. But still, this one seemed to be better than most.
Thanks for commenting. While there's indeed a lot of speculation, there is a lot of real working tools out there, so I'd rather start preparing myself before and not eventually get replaced by a tool that I could have perfectly leveraged to improve professionally.
I totally agree with that.
Hi, thanks for commenting :). I think there are already evidences out there that this could actually replace work from us. favtutor.com/articles/devin-ai-ear...?
Thanks for replying to my comment. I read the article you sent me. I would agree, it backs up the statements you've made in you post. I'm not saying that AI won't replace developers work in many area, but I'm not saying it will. If read quite a few articles on this. Everyone has their sources, and everything seems to be contradictory. Right now, I'm going to be the best software developer a can, and wait and see. :)
And that's the right mindset! Seeing AI as great tool rather than a menace. Only time will tell.
AI: The Empowering Exosuit
Imagine a powerful exosuit, like Iron Man's armor. On its own, the suit is an impressive feat of engineering, but without a skilled pilot, it's just a collection of inactive technology.
This is similar to Artificial Intelligence. AI is incredibly powerful, capable of complex tasks and analysis. But just like the exosuit, AI needs a human to provide focus and expertise to unlock its true potential.
The Hero Behind the Controls
A superhero in the exosuit can achieve amazing feats, but it's their training, experience, and strategic thinking that make them truly heroic. Similarly, an AI system guided by a human with knowledge and expertise can produce groundbreaking results.
The Winning Formula: Human and Machine Together
The key takeaway? AI is a transformative tool, but it augments human capabilities, not replaces them. The true winners of AI will be those who use it to empower their workforce, not downsize it. Just like a superhero and their exosuit, the most effective teams will combine human ingenuity with AI's power to achieve remarkable things. The future belongs to those who can foster this powerful collaboration between human and artificial intelligence.
Genius! I loved this analogy!
Great post! I think the future for us engineers is figuring out how to use AI to our advantage. I don't think a 1:1 replacement is the way. New tools should augment our workflows, not replace them. I wrote a blog post on how to create flow with AI tools.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts in this post. I really liked the title, so I read it with interest. I agree, especially with the idea that the tech industry will eventually filter out people who are only in it for money. But what about creativity? AI can't be creative. When it comes to Devin AI, We haven't tested it yet, so we're uncertain if it will truly be a flawless substitute for software developers. I won't deny that AI will change how we work by automating repetitive tasks, but ultimately, AI will always be the tools we control.
I think Devin is just a proof of concept. Eventually a better model (if not Devin) will somehow be used in production codebases, which will reduce the need of engineers in those pieces of the system.
I feel the same regarding that we should use these tools to boost our performance
They've made my last year and a half super productive and some tasks that would have been daunting in the past are not anymore.
Overall, I view AI as a positive development for developers (pun intended).
Yes, I use copilot and it makes my productive sky rocket when I have write elements in html or design db once it understand my patterns of design files and folders
AI indeed will take away some jobs. AI is developing as the world goes on. But we need to adapt to the situations.
change is the only constant - Heraclitus