Age affects living beings negatively. Younger organisms can be expected to outlast older ones.
But non-perishable things like ideas, music, and technology behave differently.
If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not "aging" like persons, but "aging" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!
-Nassim Taleb
The longer technologies have survived, the longer they are likely to stay alive. This is called the Lindy effect.
It's worth applying the idea of the Lindy effect to something like the JavaScript ecosystem, and programming in general. Frameworks come and frameworks go. Languages behave similarly, although to a lesser extent. But algorithms and the math underneath them doesn't change much.
If you're building something, especially if for the long term, the Lindy effect might be a good counterbalance to the urge of experimenting with new things.
Top comments (4)
I don't see this working in many places. Use of CDs is constantly diminishing and will die in a few decades. The same goes for obsolete tech which will be replaced someday.
The Lindy effect is an estimator that works on the average. You wouldn't use last month's prediction about the weather today to plan your trip if you could see the rain clouds in the sky.
I bet you a shekel that most 'obsolete' tech that'll be replaced in the near future are relatively new themselves.
I'm confused because by that logic, everything not extinct the first years would live forever ... no?
And so, nothing would ever go extinct ...
Since it was alive for a year, I can expect it to be alive another year.
But then, after that second year, I can expect it to be alive another 2 years.
And then, another 4, and 8 etc ...
Then, if the important part is
without extinctionand it meant that something could go extinct any given time, then what's the point of the expectation?Am I looking at it wrong?
So Windows (1985) will outlast Linux (1991) ?