Predictability is the capacity to precisely forecast the results of actions. In the context of agile development, it is frequently seen as a gauge of a team's performance throughout several sprints or iterations. If teams can deliver the expected amount of work, on time, then they are consistent and dependable.
But you cannot simply expect to set deadlines and have your team grind itself into the ground to meet them. A key part of predictability is also the stability of workload in the context of a team's existing story points (the work they are currently completing). Workload and expectations must be reasonable – and this is the responsibility of management. In particular, product managers and project managers.
Team leaders must develop trust and promote an open and honest culture by discussing the scope of work, story points, and deadlines to set a foundation for their team to achieve predictability.
Project management methodologies such as Agile (Scrum, Kanban), waterfall, and Lean are often used as tools to aid teams in achieving predictability. But Agile methodologies occasionally get criticism for being too erratic to permit accurate forecasts.
However, when utilized correctly, making full use of sprint planning, retrospectives, and bug tracking (to account for urgent ad hoc tasks that enter the pipeline), Agile can enable teams to achieve predictability while adjusting to changes. It provides the necessary data and analytics to accurately estimate the impact of ad hoc tasks on predictability, handoffs, and deadlines.
What Is the Difference Between Predictability vs Productivity?
It is crucial to distinguish between productivity and predictability—two concepts that, despite their similarities, have different functions within the process.
In general, productivity refers to the production rate per unit of input. It gauges effectiveness, showing how well resources (labor, time, etc.) are used to achieve intended results.
Predictability, on the other hand, refers to how consistently results are met throughout time. It is not only about output volume or speed but also prediction accuracy and team consistency.
A predictable team might not necessarily be the most effective in terms of pure productivity. Nevertheless, they consistently fulfill deadlines, provide up-to-par outcomes, and avoid surprises or meltdowns.
In essence, while productivity focuses on optimizing processes to achieve higher outputs, predictability emphasizes creating a stable environment where outcomes can be forecasted accurately.
You should aim for between 80% and 120% predictability to increase stakeholder trust.
How Can You Calculate Predictability?
Predictability is calculated by taking the ratio of work completed to estimated work and then multiplying it by 100. A team with a high predictability score is one that routinely finishes work within the estimated time.
Consistency from product managers and other team leaders is a huge advantage. It gives the team a reliable framework for effectively setting delivery dates and planning. A predictability score between 80% and 120% builds trust with stakeholders.
All in all, predictability demonstrates that the team can be trusted to reach goals. By tracking predictability, you can more efficiently deploy resources and run more successful development teams.
Ways to Achieve High Predictability
There are a few things that help achieve high predictability. The main three are experience, systems and processes, and project management skills and tools.
Experience: Knowing how long a job will take is an art and a science. A little bit of experience will go a long way.
Systems and processes: Having reliable systems and processes increases the predictability of outcomes. If you haven’t got them yet, build them.
Project management: You'll notice a huge difference once you integrate good project management software into your workflow.
I personally use monday dev. I find its comprehensive project management solutions save me a lot of time because there are a lot of pre-built templates and frameworks to help me build the systems I need.
These systems help me iteratively improve predictability within my team (with the help of retrospectives and data-backed insights from easy pre-built reports) and in turn give my team the support they need from me to deliver on predictability (in the form of easy-to-use Agile boards, bug tracking, roadmaps, and more).
Five Top Benefits of Using Project Management Software
Good project management tools can greatly improve this score by helping teams plan better and set achievable goals. Below are a few ways that project management tools can enhance predictability.
1. Centralized Planning
By consolidating product requirements, tasks, and milestones in one place, teams can clearly understand the workload, making it easier to provide accurate estimates.
2. Efficient Task Tracking
Real-time task tracking ensures that teams are always aware of their progress against estimates. This constant feedback loop can help teams adjust and adapt as needed to stay on target.
3. Historical Data Analysis
Over time, the software accumulates data on task completion rates, estimate accuracy, and other metrics. Teams can analyze this historical data to refine future estimates and understand their typical delivery patterns.
4. Collaboration & Communication
Enhanced collaboration tools ensure that team members can communicate effectively, reducing the chances of misunderstandings that might impact predictability.
5. Resource allocation
By visualizing the allocation of resources, teams can quickly identify if they are over-committed or under-utilized, allowing for adjustments to improve predictability.
Should You Pursue Predictability?
For enterprise applications, prioritizing reliability over novelty is usually the right call. However, the right balance depends on factors like product type, user needs, and strategic priorities.
Rather than definitively answering “yes” or “no” on predictability, product teams should look for opportunities to deliver the expected while occasionally challenging conventions or putting all hands on deck to solve critical high-impact ad hoc tasks or bigs.
Building confidence between development teams and stakeholders is one of the main advantages. The long-term success of any project relies upon teams building a foundation of mutual respect and trust.
All in all, predictability provides a roadmap for teams to navigate the complexities of development together, with a clear vision and north star that helps both management and development teams perform better and more cohesively.
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