Update on the War in Ukraine
Current Fighting and Advances
- Ukrainian Counteroffensive: In early August 2024, Ukrainian troops launched a surprise attack into the Russian regions of Kursk and Belgorod, advancing up to 18 miles (30km) into Russian territory. This move is seen as an attempt to force Russia to redeploy units from the east and relieve pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
- Russian Advances in East: Russian forces continue to make gradual gains in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region. They have occupied villages east of Kurakhove and advanced near Toretsk, Kupiansk, and the Oskil river in the Kharkiv region. Despite heavy losses, Russia has edged forward, capturing small towns like Niu-York and making significant advances towards Pokrovsk.
- Kharkiv Region: Russian forces have opened a new front in the northeast Kharkiv region, with significant ground assaults and the seizure of several villages. This area has seen intense fighting, with Russian aerial bombs damaging civilian infrastructure and causing casualties.
Losses and Humanitarian Impact
- Civilian Casualties: The conflict has resulted in over 30,000 civilian casualties, with recent incidents including Russian shelling and drone strikes killing at least 35 civilians across Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes have also caused civilian casualties in Russian-occupied areas.
- Displacement and Humanitarian Needs: The war has displaced 3.7 million people internally and forced 6.5 million to flee Ukraine. Approximately 14.6 million people require humanitarian assistance.
Political and Strategic Developments
- Ukrainian Command Changes: In February 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi with General Oleksandr Syrsky, following a stalemate in Ukraine's counteroffensive efforts. This change led to the withdrawal of troops from Avdiivka to avoid encirclement.
- Russian Tactics and Casualties: Russia's strategy involves throwing large numbers of soldiers at Ukrainian positions, resulting in high casualty rates. Western officials estimate that about 1,200 Russian soldiers are being killed or wounded daily in some periods.
International Support
- Aid Packages: Ukraine has received significant aid, including a $61 billion package from the US, which includes missiles, artillery, and air-defense systems. Since January 2022, Ukraine has received about $278 billion in aid, with $75 billion coming from the United States.
- Donor Fatigue: Despite ongoing support, there are warnings of donor fatigue, which could impact the sustainability of aid to Ukraine.
Notable Strikes and Incidents
- Ukrainian Drone Attacks: Ukrainian forces have conducted several significant drone attacks on Russian territory, including a strike on a munitions warehouse in the Tver region, which triggered large explosions and led to the evacuation of 3,000 civilians.
- Russian Executions and Human Rights Violations: There have been reports of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war and committing other human rights abuses, which are under investigation by Ukrainian authorities.
References: Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia - BBC: Ukraine Conflict Monitor - ACLED: War in Ukraine | Global Conflict Tracker - Council on Foreign Relations: Ukraine Conflict Updates | Institute for the Study of War
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